Schweißer symbolisiert die Entwicklung der Produktion im produzierenden Gewerbe

© Tremblay

According to the Federal Statistical Office,1 output in the goods-producing sector remained virtually constant in November as compared to the previous month (-0.2%).2 Industrial output increased by 0.2%, whilst construction sector output declined by 0.8%.

Since the beginning of 2021, industrial output has been impacted by supply bottlenecks affecting important intermediate products and raw materials. As a consequence, it dropped sharply in some parts last summer. Following a substantial rise in October, the flat development in November suggests that the situation in the goods-producing sector has started to stabilise.

In November, the important automotive sector (+4.1%) again had a positive impact on the production index, although motor vehicle production is still far below the pre-crisis level. In contrast, mechanical engineering output dropped by 3.6%. Both sectors of industry have been particularly badly affected by the shortages of semiconductors for several months.

The current indicators give cause for restrained optimism about industrial activity. The end of the negative trend in manufacturing output goes hand in hand with current positive indicators of sentiment. Supply bottlenecks, however, are likely to continue to have a negative impact for several months to come. Once they have disappeared, industrial activity is expected to grow dynamically – in view of full order books.

[1] Press release by the Federal Statistical Office of 7 January 2022.
[2] All figures are based on provisional data and have been adjusted for price, calendar day and seasonal factors (X13 JDemetra+ procedure).