Arbeiter in einem Werk stehen für Auftragseingang im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe.

© Monty Rakusen/cultura/Corbis

According to the Federal Statistical Office1, new orders fell between February and March by 4.7%2. This shows that the first month of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine already had a clear impact on demand due to increased uncertainty. The decline was primarily due to reduced demand for the two leading categories, i.e. capital goods (-8.3%) and intermediate goods (-1.5%). The slight fall in February and the more substantial drop in March mean that the level of new orders has slipped back below the level seen in the same month a year ago (-3.1%).

In geographical terms, the main fall was seen in foreign demand (-6.7%). This was primarily due to very weak demand from outside the eurozone (-13.2%); orders from within the eurozone rose by 5.6%. Domestic orders shrank by 1.8%. Due to the appreciable drop in new orders in the final quarter of 2021, the first quarter of 2022 registered an overall increase of 2.8%.

The economic repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine were reflected in March in a substantial drop in new orders. The increased uncertainty is finding expression in much lower demand, particularly from outside the eurozone. At present, the outlook for the next few months is subdued.

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[1] Press release by the Federal Statistical Office of 5 May 2022.
[2] All figures are based on provisional data and have been adjusted for price, calendar day and seasonal factors (X13 JDemetra+ procedure).