The study entitled “Impact of governmental policy measures within the target architecture of the German energy transition” was produced for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy by a consortium consisting of Prognos AG, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the German Aerospace Center (DLR). It is designed as a meta-analysis and evaluates the effect of instruments within the structured and prioritised targets of the Federal Government’s Energy Concept (the “target architecture”) up to 2020 compared with a reference development. It draws on existing studies into the impact of policy instruments and strategies.
The analyses undertaken in the study are based on models and assumptions, e.g. regarding the rate of GDP growth and population trends. It is of course possible that the variables in these models and assumptions differ from those based on more recent estimates and calculations. In order to take account of existing uncertainties about the effect of the instruments and, where appropriate, to derive additional findings about the robustness of the target attainment, the study quantified the estimated impact in terms of ranges. Where there are gaps in the data, the data are supplemented by in-house impact assessments. The Federal Government does not take responsibility for the content of the study, but in the sixth Monitoring Report on the Energy Transition it does draw on it in its reflections on the assessment of progress made on target attainment.