Development of new manufacturing orders in February 2022

According to the Federal Statistical Office[1], new manufacturing orders dropped between January and February by 2.2%.[2] The fall in February partly offsets the upward trend in the preceding three months. The decline was primarily due to lower demand for capital goods (-2.8 %) and intermediate goods (-1.9 %). Orders of consumer goods (+0.7 %), and especially of consumer durables (+3.1 %), slowed down the fall. Despite the declining trend in February, new orders were, however, still considerably above the level of the same month in the previous year (+2.9% in calender-adjusted terms).

Altogether, the fall in new orders was mainly due to lower demand from abroad (-3.3 %). Orders from the eurozone and orders from the non-eurozone declined at a similar rate (-3.3% and -3.4% respectively). Domestic demand fell only slightly ( 0.2 %). The more meaningful two-month comparison shows that new orders altogether continued to rise (+2.4%) due to the increase in the preceding months.

The fall in new orders in February must primarily be seen against the background of the marked increase in the preceding months. The data do not yet take full account of the impact of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. The war, however, has resulted in great uncertainty regarding the further development of demand. For this reason, the outlook for the coming months currently remains subdued.

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[1] Press release by the Federal Statistical Office of 6 April 2022.
[2] All figures are based on provisional data and have been adjusted for price, calendar day and seasonal factors (X13 JDemetra+ procedure).