Development of output in the goods-producing sector in January 2023

According to the Federal Statistical Office¹, output in the goods-producing sector rose by +3.5%² in price-, calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms in January as compared to the previous month. The construction industry in particular saw a strong increase in output (+12.6%). The industrial sector recorded an increase of 1.9%. There was also slight growth in the energy and water supply sector (+0.4%).

While the important sector of vehicles and vehicle parts significantly reduced its output (-5.2%), growth in the similarly large mechanical engineering sector rose considerably (+2.3%). Growth in the particularly energy-intensive sectors varied: The manufacture of chemical products (+9.8%) and paper and board (+5.3%) expanded strongly; by contrast, the manufacture of pharmaceutical products declined significantly (-12.9%).

The strong expansion of manufacturing output in January should be seen in the context of the significant decline in production in December (revised upward to -2.4%). The two-month comparison, which is a more meaningful indicator, shows a decline of 0.6%. Th milder weather in January is likely to have had a positive impact on output in the construction sector. Nevertheless, the most recent development gives cause for cautious optimism. The latest surveys show a continued upward trend in business outlook and a decline in shortages of materials. Taking also into account that order books are still well filled, the economic slowdown at the beginning of the year is likely not to be strong.

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¹ Press release from the Federal Statistical Office of 8 March 2023.
² All figures are based on provisional data and have been adjusted for price, calendar day and seasonal factors (X13 JDemetra+ procedure).