Germany on track for 2030 climate targets for the first time

The 2024 greenhouse gas projections show a reduction of almost 64% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This means that the German climate target for 2030 - reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% - is within reach. In contrast, a reduction of only 49% was expected in the 2021 projection report. This underlines the fact that the measures taken in the meantime are having an impact.

This is also confirmed by looking at the cumulative emissions for the period 2021 to 2030. According to the draft of the Federal Climate Change Act, these will be decisive in future as to whether a subsequent correction is triggered or not. The projection data that have now been published show that the greenhouse gas emissions permitted across all sectors for the period 2021 to 2030 (total annual emissions) can be complied with overall: there is an overfulfilment of 47 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents. This will close the climate action gap of 1,100 million tonnes that existed at the beginning of the legislative period completely.

Robert Habeck, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action said: For the first time ever, the figures show: Germany is on track – for the first time. If we stay on course, we will achieve our 2030 climate targets and close the climate action gap! And that with a recovering economy. This shows that our efforts are worthwhile and that our actions are making a difference. When I took office as Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action in 2021, there was a huge gap of 1,100 million tonnes of CO₂ between the target and the measures that had been taken so far. The speed of climate action had to nearly triple. And at the beginning of this government term, it was more than unclear whether we would mange to get on track. However, now we can close the gap if we continue to work hard to implement the necessary measures. We are not doing equally well in all sectors - which is why we need to work even harder in some areas.

The development in the individual sectors shows a heterogenous picture: the energy, industry, agriculture, waste management and other sectors are overfulfilled. The transport and, above all, the buildings sectors show an improved trend compared to previous projections. However, they fall short of their previous sector targets. As emissions in the transport and buildings sectors are decisive for the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), this also means that Germany could miss its targets by 2030 without further action. There are various reasons for the significantly more favourable trend in GHG emissions compared to previous projections. For example, measures such as the Federal funding for energy-efficient buildings (BEG), the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) and the increase in the HGV toll have helped to reduce the target gaps in the buildings and transport sectors. The measures taken to accelerate the expansion of renewable energies are also having an increasing impact. In 2023, the decline in production in energy-intensive industry as a result of high energy prices following the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine had a particular impact. The projection up to 2030 assumes that the industry will recover and emissions will nevertheless continue to fall. The measures to promote the climate-neutral conversion of production - such as the new instrument of carbon contracts for difference - will make a decisive contribution.

The individual sectors in figures:

The energy sector exceeds its cumulative emissions target by 175 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, the industry sector by 37 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The agriculture, waste management and other sectors exceed their targets by 29 million tonnes and 17 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents respectively. The transport sector has a cumulative reduction gap of 180 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents by 2030, and the buildings sector will also miss its target by 32 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents by 2030.

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